In the middle of the road of the electoral campaigns and facing less than 35 days to the voting day on June 4th in the State of Mexico to renovate the governor, the elections are outlined to become in the “most national state elections in history” due to their implications in 2018, but specially because they might mean the cleaning up from the group Atlacomulco, which doesn’t know what defeat is for 91 years.
According to the experts, the results will be so overwhelming in the whole country and in a short future, that the outcomes might change in a blink of an eye the interrelation between political parties at a national level.
STATE OF MEXICO, FINANCIAL AND ELECTORAL BARN
The relevance of the process that will conclude the 4 of June, lies on the numbers that the State of Mexico represents, since it concentrates the 14% of the national population and 13.5% of the voters in the country in so far as its annual resources average 240,000 million pesos.
During his period, Eruviel Ávila has gotten one billion 228,032 million pesos, including the 2017 budget for 260,000 million pesos, which included an increasing of 13% to increase the fund for the current social programs.
However, its financial wealth resists with the size of its lags, since the 56.8% of the population lives in poverty according to CONEVAL, it owns the fifth biggest debt in the country; the first place in corruption; the first in criminal incidence; the first in extortions and with a level of impunity of 92%, while the wave of femicides hasn’t stopped since 2011, with 1,652 during the period of Eruviel Ávila.
Facing this reality, whoever wins the elections will become the 75th governor of the most important state in the country, but if the winner is the cousin of the President of Mexico, Enrique Peña, he will be the 25th of the tricolor party in what has been almost 92 consecutive years of governors of the PRI party.
THE IMPERFECT ALTERNATION
The next electoral day will represent a challenge for the 8 contender parties and their candidates, after that in the 2015 elections, PRI got the 32.32% of the votes; PAN got 17.87%; PRD got 15.81%; PT got 3.47%, and PT only 2.18%.
Currently, PRI rules on 84 out of 125 municipalities of the State of Mexico; PAN rules 19; PRD rules 16; PT has 3; Morena has 1; Encuentro Social has 1, and Nueva Alianza also 1.
In the middle of this set, the electoral campaigns have already reached their first half, so that the main political strengths that are struggling focus their strategy in the 20 municipalities with highest electoral value and the 23 with levels of participation higher than the 70%.
Due to that reason and according to Juan Carlos Villarreal, director of the Center of Strategic Planning and Political Prospective (Ceplan), the variables that can influence the results on June 4th are complex, even though he agreed with Bernardo Barranco in the sense that the battle might not be only between 3 of the contenders as it was expected but 4 due to Juan Zepeda (from PRD), who has gotten into the struggle.
Whoever won the battle could do it even with 1.8 million votes, due to the fragmentation of the vote on this elections.