“I’m leading the surveys”: Alfredo Del Mazo
May 10, 2017
May 18, 2017

Delfina Gómez: “I’m winning in the surveys”

In the second debate the candidate of Morena, presumed that it is punteando in the surveys, however an analysis of its sources allowed to establish that falsified a data, just as it did Del Mazo in a similar twitt.


Delfina Gómez: “I’m winning in the surveys”

During the second official debate between the candidates to become the next governor of the State of Mexico the last April 9th, the candidate of the Morena party, started her participation by ensuring that she is doing “quite well” in the surveys. The polls that showed her on the top are from several newspapers such as Reforma, El Financiero, El Universal, 24 Horas, and a survey from which logo, name and content are unreadable.

Before starting the analysis, it is convenient to make a point: The management of the statements said by Delfina Gómez will be the same as the one used with the statements made by Alfredo Del Mazo in past publications in this site, since both of them say openly that they are winning according to the polls.
Del Mazo showed a survey where the shown data are inverted, this with the aim to show advantage of the PRI’s candidate.

By the epieikeia principle, this is, under the same circumstances, a mistaken data from Delfina Gómez and her argument will be graded also as False.
The first survey, from Grupo Reforma, in their April’s edition shows that, in fact, Delfina Gómez has grown one percentage point in the surveys, while her main competitor, Alfredo Del Mazo, decreased one point. Therefore, and according to Reforma, Delfina Gómez has the 29% of the electoral preferences, followed quite close by Alfredo Del Mazo with 28%; while on the other side, Josefina Vázquez fell down abruptly to get 22% of the vote’s intention.

Despite the fact that mathematically this means a vantage to the candidate of Morena, the same newspaper treats her as a “tie”.
The last survey of El Universal –which was also quoted by Del Mazo in his twit- that corresponds to May 8th of 2017, gives the advantage to the PRI’s candidate with a 19.1% of the electoral preferences. The second place is hold by Delfina Gómez, who holds a 17.5 of the survey; Juan Zepeda got the third place with 10.7%; and at the end is Josefina Vázquez who holds a 10.4% of the preferences; with this it is proved that the candidate of Morena lied. Just as Reforma, El Universal states that it is a technical tie.

Regarding the survey of El Financiero, it is worth to mention that this was also used by Alfredo Del Mazo to “prove” that he is leading the polls.

In this case, the survey gives the first place to Delfina Gómez among the millennials, since this group gives her 32% of the advantage to the candidate of Morena, while Alfredo Del Mazo holds a 28% of the preferences.

The third place is disputed between Juan Zepeda (PRD), who has 17%, and Josefina Vázquez (PAN) with 16% of the preferences among millennials. Despite Delfina leads the millennial vote according to El Financiero, Del Mazo is in the first place by 8 points among the voters aged between 37 and 54, and by 10 points among those aged older than 55 years old, which constitutes 2 thirds of the demography in the survey made by El Financiero.

Finally, the poll made by 24 Horas gives her also a statistical advantage to Delfina Gómez with 30.6% of the voting preferences. Alfredo Del Mazo holds the second place with 28.5%; Josefina Vázquez has the third place with 15.8% and she is followed by Juan Zepeda with 12.4%; Óscar González (PT) with 3.1% and the independent candidate María Castell with 2.9%.

24 Horas. Morena, con Delfina Gómez, en el gusto del electorado. http://www.24-horas.mx/morena-con-delfina-gomez-en-el-gusto-del-electorado-infografia/ Checked the 11 of May, 2017.
Grupo Reforma. Encuestas. http://gruporeforma-blogs.com/encuestas/ Checked on May 10th, 2017.
El Financiero. Millennials del Edomex prefieren a Delfina. http://www.elfinanciero.com.mx/nacional/millennials-con-delfina-los-que-tienen-mas-de-37-anos-con-del-mazo.html Checked on May 11th, 2017.
El Universal. Empate técnico en Edomex; PRI, leve ventaja. http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/articulo/metropoli/edomex/2017/05/8/empate-tecnico-en-edomex-pri-leve-ventaja Checked on May 11th, 2017.

As it was warned at the beginning, the information given by Delfina Gómez got the same treatment as the statement made by Del Mazo, this also comes from the fact that both of them used the same surveys. There must be considered at the same time that the surveys are fallible, since they show data that might differ from one to another.

In this way, it can be seen that also Delfina Gómez took advantage of such disparity on her favor.
On the cardboard that she showed publicly in a concurrent debate, televised and live, showed her statistics as a generality, a single data wrong managed or made up, disassemble her in the same way as it was proved that Del Mazo was lying.

Just like the PRI’s candidate, Delfina Gómez distorted some data –while Del Mazo distorted the info from El Financiero, Delfina did it with the information from El Universal- to show it as a survey that it was giving her the victory on the polls, therefore, her statement according to the facts exposed above, is FALSE.


By: Héctor Castañeda

16 de Mayo 2017

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