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The probable point of infections until June 27

Municipalities of hope experience contagion


The probable point of infections until June 27

May 26th, 2020

Despite the estimates of the federal government, and despite the fact that in some municipalities of the country the restrictions of the contingency for the COVID-19 coronavirus have already been lifted, the maximum point of infections is still not reached, much less is it close to letting the curve go down.

According to the article "Let's understand COVID-19 in Mexico", carried out by UNAM academic Octavio Miramontes, by May 23, Mexico was in the transition zone of the case curve or maximum contagion.

Based on the trend of the cases, the asymptote in the curve has not yet been reached, and it is expected that June 27 is when it reaches, now, the maximum point of infections, after which, in theory, it should decrease.

What happened, if estimates placed mid-May as the date the point would be reached? 10th May. The Mexican behavior reluctant to stop celebrating caused the contingency to extend for another month. Their statistical exercise estimates the total number of positives identified at around 126 thousand and the number of deaths at the end of the disease, between July and August, around 12 thousand (unless another massive disobedience of the quarantine further postpones the term of the illness).

However, and in favor of the Mexican experience, Miramontes points out that there is the experience of epidemiological surveillance in the wake of the 2009 H1N1 pandemic and this has allowed the Ministry of Health to implement preventive and preparedness measures since January 2020.

Despite the series of measures implemented by the government (closure of schools and universities, suspension of non-essential economic activities, social distance, and the use of face masks), perhaps the most effective is that of voluntary confinement. However, the mobility data provided by the companies that register these data indicate that mobility in Mexico (between April 16 and May 16) has not only not decreased, but has increased compared to other countries. In other words, the best way to decrease the contagion rate and prevent the epidemic from lasting up to six months with an increase in mortality is just what the Mexican is not complying with.

This negligence on the part of the Mexican, and the rush of the federal government to return to activities, despite the fact that the contagion curve has not decreased, has resulted in the so-called "municipalities of hope" have already lost their status to a week after the return to the "new normal".


Translator: Martín Caballero

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