Last June 22, the president of the United States, Donald Trump, posted a tweet on his personal account in which he assured “Mexico has been recently ranked as the world’s second most lethal country, only surpassed by Syria”, reiterating at the end that he will build the wall.
The annual report of the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in London, presented on 9 June, shows that Mexico is indeed the second deadliest conflict zone, only behind Syria, which is currently at civil war.
IISS’ report says that in Mexico occurred 23 thousand murders in 2016, most of them attributed to the organized crime. In the same year, 50 thousand people died in Syria.
Meanwhile, the National Sistem of Public Security (SNSP in Spanish) recount 20,549 intentional homicides, almost 2, 500 less than in IISS’ study.
Although this amount is lower, there's still existing a significant difference compared with the third most lethal country, according to the aforementioned study: Iraq, since this country recorded 17 thousand murders last year.
Considering all, we should highlight some points about the report’s statistics: Mexico is a country with 125 million inhabitants; Syria has a significantly lower population, with just 18.5 million people; Iraq’s population is 36.42 million people; 32.53 people live in Afghanistan. That is to say that Mexico has more inhabitants than the three first countries shown on the upper graphic. In absolute terms, it is expected that higher population countries show higher homicide rates, especially if other factors such as quality and cost of living in each country, are considered.
In addition, it must be taken into account that USA, a country with 321.4 million people, present a high homicidal rate, with 15.696 murders. This would explain Trump’s “concern” about avoiding violence expansion in his country, considering USA has more than twice population than Mexico and between 5 and 8 thousand fewer murders.
BBC. ¿De dónde salearmas pesadas del narco en México?
http://www.bbc.com/mundo/noticias/2015/05/150505_mexico_narcotrafico_carteles_origen_armas_jp Consultado el 24 de junio de 2017.
El País. Los asesinatos crecieron un 10,8% en el último año en Estados Unidos.
http://internacional.elpais.com/internacional/2016/09/26/estados_unidos/1474907070_916947.html Consultado el 24 de junio de 2016.
La Jornada. México, el segundo país más violento del mundo: IISS.
http://www.jornada.unam.mx/ultimas/2017/05/09/mexico-el-segundo-pais-mas-violento-del-mundo-iiss Consultado el 23 de junio de 2017.
Sistema Nacional de Seguridad Pública. Tasas por cada 100 mil habitantes 1997 -2017.
http://secretariadoejecutivo.gob.mx/docs/pdfs/tasas%20por%20cada%20100%20mil%20habitantes/Tasas052017.pdf Consultado el 23 de junio de 2017.
Twitter personal de Donald Trump.
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/878013639613186049 Consultado el 23 de junio de 2017.
The data present by IISS give the reason to Donald Trump: Mexico is the second most violent country in the world. However, Trump omits the fact that 90% of the weapons used by the Mexican cartels come from the USA. This means that much of the violence in Mexico, the same one as the president fears, is based on the facilities provided by the black American market and its trade with the cartels. From a leader reluctant to control the flow of weapons in his own nation,Trump seems unlikely to recognize this fact.
Sadly, Donald Trump is right on his tweet when he says Mexico is a very violent country. Nevertheless, the president evades one of the causes of it, which directly involve his country. For that reason, the assured by Trump is ALMOST TRUE.