MILLIONS OF PUBLIC RESOURCES TO PARTIES TO SPEND ON ELECTORAL CAMPAIGNS
April 21, 2017
Toluca on bike consolidates and huizi on review
April 28, 2017“The state of Mexico is not the most dangerous, there are some worse”: Eruviel Ávila
FACK-CHECKING
“THE STATE OF MEXICO IS NOT THE MOST DANGEROUS, THERE ARE SOME WORSE”: ERUVIEL ÁVILA
The fact:
During the inauguration of the Peñafiel Group’s Plant in Tecámac, the State of Mexico’s governor, Eruviel Ávila, guaranteed that the State of Mexico “isn’t the state with the worst performance on security matters as there are states with worse numbers.”
To demonstrate the above, he stated that in the entity, there are 1.48 registered kidnappings in every 100 thousand habitants, while in other states there are 3 or even 4.
At the same time, he said that the number of homicides in the state is 11.99 in every 100,000 habitants and within other ones from “different factional or political side”, the rate reaches states that have 12.49 till states with 61.67 or 81.55.
He concluded by indicating that in the State of Mexico are 5.8 registered extortions in every 100,000 habitants, when in other states such rate reaches the 12 or 15 in every 100,000 citizens.
Analysis:
According to the Portal Semáforo Delictivo (Criminal Semaphore Site; whose main source of information is the Secretariado Ejecutivo Nacional de Seguridad Pública), the annual kidnapping rate in the State of Mexico is, currently, of 1.6 in every 100,000 habitants in average. Actually, Tecámac, the municipality where Eruviel gave the quoted speech, has an average of 2.5 kidnappings in every 100,000 habitants, becoming in this way, the town with the highest rate in the entity; it’s followed by Chalco, with an average of 2.3 kidnappings and Nicolás Romero with 2.2 kidnappings in every 100,000 habitants. In summary, 0.2 more than what was stated by the governor.
The Secretariado Ejecutivo Nacional de Seguridad Pública agrees with Eruviel about his statistics that report an average of 1.48 kidnappings in every 100 thousand habitants in 2016.
About homicides, Semáforo Delictivo reports that through the last 12 months the rate of murders has been of 13.4 in every 100,000 inhabitants. Tlalnepantla owns the first position with 24.2 in every 100,000 habitants; it’s followed by Tecámac and Chimalhuacán with 20.3 and 18.9 homicides in every 100,000 dwellers respectively. This means that it’s 1.5 more homicides than what Eruviel Ávila indicated.
On the other hand, the Secretariado Ejecutivo Nacional de Seguridad Pública registers a last year’s average of 11.99 in every 100,000 habitants, which is probably the information that the governor used to rely on due to the fact of being an official source.
Finally, about extortions, there is an average of 7 in every 100,000 dwellers in the State of Mexico. The 3 first places are occupied by Toluca, Ecatepec and, again, Tecámac with 16.8, 10.5 and 9.6 extortions in every 100 thousand habitants respectively.
So, according to Semáforo Delictivo, there are 1.2 more extortions than the information given by the governor. However, the Executive Secretariat agrees with the state’s governor as the organism also registers a rate of 5.8 extortions in every 100 thousand dwellers.
Nevertheless these valuations don’t express clearly the level of insecurity that the people deal with. Here, as in any other state, the victims of violence and crime can be counted by thousands averaging the 240,000 per year only in high impact crimes like extortion, homicides and kidnapping.
On the other hand, the Envipe (National Poll of Victimization and Perception over Public Security) 2016, situated the State of Mexico as the entity with the highest rate of “criminal impact” within the population older than 18 years old nationwide, while in the state, 90% of the population feels insecure.
The rate of crimes in every 100,000 habitants for the State of Mexico, according to the annual poll made by INEGI, is the highest in the country, however, the indicator moved favorably the last year as it got reduced by going down a 32% in net terms. This is that such rate of crime was placed in 83,566 crimes in every 100,000 dwellers in 2014, while in 2015 changed to 56,835 felonies in every 100,000 inhabitants.
Nevertheless the above, the entity presents in that indicator the highest rate in the country, surpassing even Guerrero, which rates 53,875 felonies in every 100,000 habitants; Mexico City rates 52,718 in every 100 thousand citizens; and Sonora, which rates 40,466 crimes in every 100,000 dwellers.
Even states that have been highlighted because of their often facts of violence, are behind the crime tendency in the State of Mexico, e.g. Morelos with a crime impact of 43,419 felonies in every 100,000 citizens older than 18 years old; or Sinaloa with an indicator of 22,750 felonies in every 100,000 dwellers as well.
The poll also showed that the most often committed crimes in the State of Mexico are street robberies or in the public transport; extortions and fraud.
Last year’s Envipe reported that 72.4% of the 18 years old and older population, consider that living in their federal entity is insecure due to delinquency, figure statistically equivalent to the one estimated for 2013 and 2015 together.
The feeling of insecurity in the people’s closest spaces increased in 2016, reaching a 65.1% and 45.4% of the 18 years old population and older that feel insecure in their own town or village, neighborhood or locality, respectively.
In the case of the State of Mexico, the poll threw that 90.1% of the men in the entity have a perception of “insecurity”, while in women is 91%.
In Toluca, 79.2% of the population affirmed to be “unsafe in their town”; a perception over the citizens of Mexico City, who put this indicator in a 76.4%; and a 62.6% of Puebla’s dwellers said that they have a feeling of insecurity in that city.
In Cuernavaca, another city close to Toluca, the perception of insecurity was placed in 79.8%, slightly higher than the capital of the state, while in Querétaro, located also in the center of the country, 59.8% of the population affirmed to have that feeling of insecurity in that historical city.
CONCLUSIONS:
While is true that the State of Mexico holds figures under the national average in homicides’ matter (the first place is Colima, followed by Guerrero and Sinaloa), the entity is actually over the national rate in kidnapping matter as well as when it comes about extortion.
It’s true, as the governor says, that there are other states in the country that show worse numbers; however, the State of Mexico keeps showing a progressive increasing of insecurity.
Also, it has to be considered the black numbers, this is, the non-denounced felonies. According to INEGI, in a poll made in September 2016, the figure of such felonies or the ones that didn’t shunt into a preliminary inquiry was of 93.7% nationwide. It can be inferred with this, that the number of registered felonies in Semáforo Delictivo as well as in the site of the National Secretariat of Public Security is just around 6.3% out of the total that actually are in the entity.
On the other hand, if the reports of the last poll made by the INEGI about the perception of insecurity in the State of Mexico are considered, it can be guaranteed that the cold facts do not reflect totally the reality of the problem in the state, even when, due to the huge population living there, it’s the one that receives most funds to fight crime.
It is evident that the view of the people and the government, there is a breach in security matters.
SOURCES:
Semáforo delictivo. www.semaforo.com.mx/ Checked 11 of April of 2017.
http://secretariadoejecutivo.gob.mx/docs/pdfs/tasas%20por%20cada%20100%20mil%20habitantes/Tasas022017.pdf Checked the 13 of April of 2017. Encuesta Nacional de Víctimización y Percepción de Seguridad Pública. INEGI.
http://www.inegi.org.mx/saladeprensa/boletines/2016/especiales/especiales2016_09_04.pdf. Checked 13 of April of 2017. Encuesta ENVIPE, resultados 2015 y 2016 INEGI.
According to what was contrasted with the site Semáforo Delictivo in its sampling about the State of Mexico during the last 12 months and that the official numbers of the National Secretariat of Public Security in matter of homicides and kidnappings, it agrees that the state’s governor is right, besides the data are based on samplings and there could be a slight difference between numbers, so the info given by Eruviel Ávila is ALMOST TRUE.
However if we take as a reference the last survey made by INEGI’s Envipe about citizen’s perception in security matter, it turns out QUESTIONABLE and even overbold the affirmation of the governor when he said that there are “worse” states.
During the inauguration of the Peñafiel Group’s Plant in Tecámac, the State of Mexico’s governor, Eruviel Ávila, guaranteed that the State of Mexico “isn’t the state with the worst performance on security matters as there are states with worse numbers.”
To demonstrate the above, he stated that in the entity, there are 1.48 registered kidnappings in every 100 thousand habitants, while in other states there are 3 or even 4.
At the same time, he said that the number of homicides in the state is 11.99 in every 100,000 habitants and within other ones from “different factional or political side”, the rate reaches states that have 12.49 till states with 61.67 or 81.55.
He concluded by indicating that in the State of Mexico are 5.8 registered extortions in every 100,000 habitants, when in other states such rate reaches the 12 or 15 in every 100,000 citizens.
Analysis:
According to the Portal Semáforo Delictivo (Criminal Semaphore Site; whose main source of information is the Secretariado Ejecutivo Nacional de Seguridad Pública), the annual kidnapping rate in the State of Mexico is, currently, of 1.6 in every 100,000 habitants in average. Actually, Tecámac, the municipality where Eruviel gave the quoted speech, has an average of 2.5 kidnappings in every 100,000 habitants, becoming in this way, the town with the highest rate in the entity; it’s followed by Chalco, with an average of 2.3 kidnappings and Nicolás Romero with 2.2 kidnappings in every 100,000 habitants. In summary, 0.2 more than what was stated by the governor.
The Secretariado Ejecutivo Nacional de Seguridad Pública agrees with Eruviel about his statistics that report an average of 1.48 kidnappings in every 100 thousand habitants in 2016.
About homicides, Semáforo Delictivo reports that through the last 12 months the rate of murders has been of 13.4 in every 100,000 inhabitants. Tlalnepantla owns the first position with 24.2 in every 100,000 habitants; it’s followed by Tecámac and Chimalhuacán with 20.3 and 18.9 homicides in every 100,000 dwellers respectively. This means that it’s 1.5 more homicides than what Eruviel Ávila indicated.
On the other hand, the Secretariado Ejecutivo Nacional de Seguridad Pública registers a last year’s average of 11.99 in every 100,000 habitants, which is probably the information that the governor used to rely on due to the fact of being an official source.
Finally, about extortions, there is an average of 7 in every 100,000 dwellers in the State of Mexico. The 3 first places are occupied by Toluca, Ecatepec and, again, Tecámac with 16.8, 10.5 and 9.6 extortions in every 100 thousand habitants respectively.
So, according to Semáforo Delictivo, there are 1.2 more extortions than the information given by the governor. However, the Executive Secretariat agrees with the state’s governor as the organism also registers a rate of 5.8 extortions in every 100 thousand dwellers.
Nevertheless these valuations don’t express clearly the level of insecurity that the people deal with. Here, as in any other state, the victims of violence and crime can be counted by thousands averaging the 240,000 per year only in high impact crimes like extortion, homicides and kidnapping.
On the other hand, the Envipe (National Poll of Victimization and Perception over Public Security) 2016, situated the State of Mexico as the entity with the highest rate of “criminal impact” within the population older than 18 years old nationwide, while in the state, 90% of the population feels insecure.
The rate of crimes in every 100,000 habitants for the State of Mexico, according to the annual poll made by INEGI, is the highest in the country, however, the indicator moved favorably the last year as it got reduced by going down a 32% in net terms. This is that such rate of crime was placed in 83,566 crimes in every 100,000 dwellers in 2014, while in 2015 changed to 56,835 felonies in every 100,000 inhabitants.
Nevertheless the above, the entity presents in that indicator the highest rate in the country, surpassing even Guerrero, which rates 53,875 felonies in every 100,000 habitants; Mexico City rates 52,718 in every 100 thousand citizens; and Sonora, which rates 40,466 crimes in every 100,000 dwellers.
Even states that have been highlighted because of their often facts of violence, are behind the crime tendency in the State of Mexico, e.g. Morelos with a crime impact of 43,419 felonies in every 100,000 citizens older than 18 years old; or Sinaloa with an indicator of 22,750 felonies in every 100,000 dwellers as well.
The poll also showed that the most often committed crimes in the State of Mexico are street robberies or in the public transport; extortions and fraud.
Last year’s Envipe reported that 72.4% of the 18 years old and older population, consider that living in their federal entity is insecure due to delinquency, figure statistically equivalent to the one estimated for 2013 and 2015 together.
The feeling of insecurity in the people’s closest spaces increased in 2016, reaching a 65.1% and 45.4% of the 18 years old population and older that feel insecure in their own town or village, neighborhood or locality, respectively.
In the case of the State of Mexico, the poll threw that 90.1% of the men in the entity have a perception of “insecurity”, while in women is 91%.
In Toluca, 79.2% of the population affirmed to be “unsafe in their town”; a perception over the citizens of Mexico City, who put this indicator in a 76.4%; and a 62.6% of Puebla’s dwellers said that they have a feeling of insecurity in that city.
In Cuernavaca, another city close to Toluca, the perception of insecurity was placed in 79.8%, slightly higher than the capital of the state, while in Querétaro, located also in the center of the country, 59.8% of the population affirmed to have that feeling of insecurity in that historical city.
CONCLUSIONS:
While is true that the State of Mexico holds figures under the national average in homicides’ matter (the first place is Colima, followed by Guerrero and Sinaloa), the entity is actually over the national rate in kidnapping matter as well as when it comes about extortion.
It’s true, as the governor says, that there are other states in the country that show worse numbers; however, the State of Mexico keeps showing a progressive increasing of insecurity.
Also, it has to be considered the black numbers, this is, the non-denounced felonies. According to INEGI, in a poll made in September 2016, the figure of such felonies or the ones that didn’t shunt into a preliminary inquiry was of 93.7% nationwide. It can be inferred with this, that the number of registered felonies in Semáforo Delictivo as well as in the site of the National Secretariat of Public Security is just around 6.3% out of the total that actually are in the entity.
On the other hand, if the reports of the last poll made by the INEGI about the perception of insecurity in the State of Mexico are considered, it can be guaranteed that the cold facts do not reflect totally the reality of the problem in the state, even when, due to the huge population living there, it’s the one that receives most funds to fight crime.
It is evident that the view of the people and the government, there is a breach in security matters.
SOURCES:
Semáforo delictivo. www.semaforo.com.mx/ Checked 11 of April of 2017.
http://secretariadoejecutivo.gob.mx/docs/pdfs/tasas%20por%20cada%20100%20mil%20habitantes/Tasas022017.pdf Checked the 13 of April of 2017. Encuesta Nacional de Víctimización y Percepción de Seguridad Pública. INEGI.
http://www.inegi.org.mx/saladeprensa/boletines/2016/especiales/especiales2016_09_04.pdf. Checked 13 of April of 2017. Encuesta ENVIPE, resultados 2015 y 2016 INEGI.
According to what was contrasted with the site Semáforo Delictivo in its sampling about the State of Mexico during the last 12 months and that the official numbers of the National Secretariat of Public Security in matter of homicides and kidnappings, it agrees that the state’s governor is right, besides the data are based on samplings and there could be a slight difference between numbers, so the info given by Eruviel Ávila is ALMOST TRUE.
However if we take as a reference the last survey made by INEGI’s Envipe about citizen’s perception in security matter, it turns out QUESTIONABLE and even overbold the affirmation of the governor when he said that there are “worse” states.
By: Héctor Castañeda
Historiador y Analista.
19 de Abril 2017
